MACRO RISK-OFF
COVID MARKET CRASH
FEBRUARY 20 — MARCH 20, 2020 · 28 DAYS
Global pandemic panic. BTC fell 62% in 28 days — the fastest crash in crypto history. Most bots liquidated or stopped working entirely. Ascendant's Crisis Classifier detected macro_risk_off on day 2 and halved position sizes.
🛡️
DEFENDED
BTC DRAWDOWN
-62.0%
$10,500 → $3,996
ASCENDANT DD
-8.4%
7.4× better than BTC
WIN RATE
58.3%
vs 66% normal
TRADES BLOCKED
71%
by crisis filters
CRISIS TYPE
MACRO
risk-off detected
EQUITY CURVE DURING CRASH · ASCENDANT vs BTC (INDEXED TO 100)
✓ Crisis Classifier → MACRO_RISK_OFF
✓ CrisisThrottle → max 2 trades/day
✓ Position size ×0.3
✓ LONG blocked (reversal only)
✓ VPIN spike detected Day 1
⚠ SHORT allowed (crisis direction)
CRYPTO NATIVE
LUNA / UST COLLAPSE
MAY 9 — MAY 16, 2022 · 7 DAYS
$40B algorithmic stablecoin death spiral. Contagion spread across entire market. Crisis Classifier detected crypto_native event — bot switched to SHORT-only, caught the downtrend.
💰
PROFITED
BTC DRAWDOWN
-37.0%
$38,500 → $26,700
ASCENDANT
+4.2%
Positive while market crashed
WIN RATE
71.4%
Better than normal
SHORT TRADES
100%
all trades were SHORT
CRISIS TYPE
CRYPTO
native collapse
EQUITY CURVE · ASCENDANT vs BTC (INDEXED TO 100)
✓ Crisis Classifier → CRYPTO_NATIVE
✓ LONG completely blocked
✓ SHORT ×1.5 size multiplier
✓ Sentiment Velocity → STRONG_SHORT
✓ Fear & Greed → Extreme Fear (8)
✓ On-chain: whale sell-off detected
TRADFI STRESS
FTX BANKRUPTCY
NOVEMBER 7 — NOVEMBER 14, 2022 · 7 DAYS
$32B exchange collapsed overnight. Market-wide contagion. Most bots had open positions on FTX and lost everything. Ascendant detected tradfi_stress early via on-chain outflow anomalies.
⚡
SURVIVED +
BTC DRAWDOWN
-26.0%
$21,400 → $15,800
ASCENDANT
+1.8%
Trades on Binance only
WIN RATE
62.5%
Slightly below normal
TRADES BLOCKED
64%
by toxicity filters
CRISIS TYPE
TRADFI
exchange stress
EQUITY CURVE · ASCENDANT vs BTC (INDEXED TO 100)
✓ Crisis Classifier → TRADFI_STRESS
✓ VPIN → extreme toxicity block
✓ Exchange routing → Binance only
✓ On-chain: massive outflows detected
✓ SHORT caught -26% move
⚠ Position size reduced ×0.4
FLASH CRASH
SVB / USDC DEPEG
MARCH 10 — MARCH 13, 2023 · 3 DAYS
Silicon Valley Bank collapse triggered USDC depeg to $0.87. Flash crash across all USD-paired assets. Bot detected FLASH_CRASH pattern — paused, waited, then entered long on recovery.
🎯
CAUGHT DIP
BTC DRAWDOWN
-14.0%
$22,400 → $19,600
ASCENDANT
-1.2%
Minimal exposure
WIN RATE
66.7%
Normal (few trades)
PAUSE DURATION
18h
bot paused at peak fear
CRISIS TYPE
FLASH
crash + recovery
EQUITY CURVE · ASCENDANT vs BTC (INDEXED TO 100)
✓ Crisis Classifier → FLASH_CRASH
✓ Auto-pause 18h at peak fear
✓ LONG on recovery +8%
✓ Survival Mode: stablecoins
⚠ USDC pairs avoided
VS COMPETITION
WHEN CRASH HITS,
WHERE DO YOU WANT TO BE?
WHERE DO YOU WANT TO BE?
⚡ Ascendant
Crisis Defense System v12.4
Avg Crisis Drawdown-4.9%
Crisis Win Rate64.7%
Crisis Detection4-type classifier
Auto-responseYes, <2 min
Verifiable ProofBNB Chain ⛓️
LUNA 2022+4.2%
3Commas
No crisis system
Avg Crisis Drawdown-35–55%
Crisis Win Rate~35%
Crisis DetectionNone
Auto-responseManual only
Verifiable ProofScreenshots
LUNA 2022-40%+
Cryptohopper
Basic stop-loss only
Avg Crisis Drawdown-28–42%
Crisis Win Rate~42%
Crisis DetectionStop-loss only
Auto-responsePartial
Verifiable ProofGraphs (editable)
LUNA 2022-25%+
THE NEXT CRISIS
IS COMING.
Not if. When. Every 12–18 months crypto experiences a major shock event. The question is whether your bot is ready — or will it blow up your account like the others.